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After the 1989 trade deal, industries with the deepest Canadian tariff cuts lost about 12% of their jobs. Their output per worker rose about 15%. A separate 14% gain at plants followed deep US tariff cuts.

Checked 2026-10-20. Each record says what the source can and cannot show.

What this covers

Place: Canada
Time covered: 1989 to 1996 and the years after

What this does not prove

The study is about firms that make goods. It covers a two-way deal. The plant and industry results are not the same test. They do not price a move by Canada alone today.

Read the source

The Long and Short of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement ↗

Daniel Trefler / American Economic Review · 2004-09

Where to look: Abstract: deepest Canadian cuts, industry employment -12%, industry labour productivity +15%; deepest US cuts, plant labour productivity +14%

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After the 1989 trade deal, industries with the deepest Canadian tariff cuts lost about 12% of their jobs. Their output per worker rose about 15%. A separate 14% gain at plants followed deep US tariff cuts.

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What this does not show: The study is about firms that make goods. It covers a two-way deal. The plant and industry results are not the same test. They do not price a move by Canada alone today.

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