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A study covered 151 countries from 1963 to 2014. A tariff rise of about 3.6 points was linked to output about 0.4% lower five years later. Output per worker fell too.

Checked 2026-10-20. Each record says what the source can and cannot show.

What this covers

Place: 151 countries
Time covered: 1963–2014; 2019 working paper

What this does not prove

The 2019 paper uses a model to sort out effects. It does not forecast what Canada would gain from zero tariffs now.

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Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs (2019 working paper) ↗

Furceri, Hannan, Ostry and Rose / IMF Economic Review · 2019-01

Where to look: Page 14: 3.6-percentage-point tariff shock, about 0.4% lower output five years later

International Monetary Fund: Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs (2019 working paper), 2019-01. Source terms ↗

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A study covered 151 countries from 1963 to 2014. A tariff rise of about 3.6 points was linked to output about 0.4% lower five years later. Output per worker fell too.

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What this does not show: The 2019 paper uses a model to sort out effects. It does not forecast what Canada would gain from zero tariffs now.

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International Monetary Fund: Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs (2019 working paper), 2019-01. Source terms ↗

Sources and notes