We compared 2022 tariffs with later growth in 143 economies. The simple link was close to zero. We also checked growth around 240 large falls in average tariff rates. These checks cannot tell us what tariffs caused.

Checked 2026-10-20. Each record says what the source can and cannot show.

What this covers

Place: 143 countries (levels test); 116 countries (cut episodes)
Time covered: Tariffs 1990–2022; growth 1990–2025; descriptive checks

What this does not prove

Growth runs to 2025. Most of the 143 comparisons use three later years; three use two. Other policies, crises and changes in imports can affect both series. No clear link is not proof of no effect.

Read the source

Where to look: All countries, 1990-2022 reported; paired with GDP per capita growth (NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG) in our analysis

The World Bank: World Development Indicators: Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%), 2026-10-08. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Source terms ↗ · CC BY 4.0 ↗

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No fact has changed in this version. If we fix a claim, we will add the date and explain the change here and in our list of fixes.

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We compared 2022 tariffs with later growth in 143 economies. The simple link was close to zero. We also checked growth around 240 large falls in average tariff rates. These checks cannot tell us what tariffs caused.

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Checked:

What this does not show: Growth runs to 2025. Most of the 143 comparisons use three later years; three use two. Other policies, crises and changes in imports can affect both series. No clear link is not proof of no effect.

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The World Bank: World Development Indicators: Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%), 2026-10-08. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Source terms ↗ · CC BY 4.0 ↗

Sources and notes