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Sources & fixes / I-E12

A study of the 2018 US tariffs found that import buyers bore the full tax at the border. Their loss was about US$51 billion. After tax revenue and gains to US firms were counted, the net US income loss was about US$7.2 billion.

Checked 2026-10-20. Each record says what the source can and cannot show.

What this covers

Place: United States
Time covered: 2017 to 2019

What this does not prove

The buyer cost and the net national loss are different sums. The net loss is a model estimate with a wide range of doubt. Border prices are not shop prices.

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The Return to Protectionism ↗

Fajgelbaum, Goldberg, Kennedy and Khandelwal / Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2020-02

Where to look: Abstract and Table VIII: US$51 billion gross import-buyer loss; US$7.2 billion net real-income loss after revenue and producer gains

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A study of the 2018 US tariffs found that import buyers bore the full tax at the border. Their loss was about US$51 billion. After tax revenue and gains to US firms were counted, the net US income loss was about US$7.2 billion.

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What this does not show: The buyer cost and the net national loss are different sums. The net loss is a model estimate with a wide range of doubt. Border prices are not shop prices.

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