A tariff payment goes to the state. It is not all lost output. A full study must count gains to buyers, tax revenue, gains to protected firms and the cost of trades that no longer happen.

Checked 2026-10-20. Each record says what the source can and cannot show.

What this covers

Place: United States
Time covered: 2018 US tariffs; published 2019–2020

What this does not prove

These are different parts of a cost study. Adding the tax take to the full buyer cost would count part of the same money twice.

Read the source

The Return to Protectionism ↗

Fajgelbaum, Goldberg, Kennedy and Khandelwal / Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2020-02

Where to look: Abstract and Table VIII: US$51 billion gross import-buyer loss; US$7.2 billion net real-income loss after revenue and producer gains

The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare ↗

Amiti, Redding and Weinstein / Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2019

Where to look: By December 2018: $3.2 billion a month in added tax payments plus $1.4 billion a month in deadweight losses; import prices rose one-for-one with tariffs

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No fact has changed in this version. If we fix a claim, we will add the date and explain the change here and in our list of fixes.

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A tariff payment goes to the state. It is not all lost output. A full study must count gains to buyers, tax revenue, gains to protected firms and the cost of trades that no longer happen.

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What this does not show: These are different parts of a cost study. Adding the tax take to the full buyer cost would count part of the same money twice.

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