Growth runs to 2025. Most of the 143 comparisons use three later years; three use two. Other policies, crises and changes in imports can affect both series. No clear link is not proof of no effect.
What we checked
We compared 2022 tariffs with later growth in 143 economies. The simple link was close to zero. We also checked growth around 240 large falls in average tariff rates. These checks cannot tell us what tariffs caused.
The source has tariffs through 2022 and growth through 2025. We also looked at 240 large falls in average rates. Some before-and-after windows are short. The same country can appear more than once. These are descriptive checks, not a test of cause.
Why a weak link is not an answer
Crises, other reforms and changes in what people import can move both rates and growth. A fall in an average rate need not be a new law. We cannot use these checks to say tariffs have no effect, or to price a growth gain from repeal.
Use stronger evidence
Researchers studied 151 countries from 1963 to 2014. A tariff rise of about 3.6 points was linked to output about 0.4% lower five years later. They also found lower output per worker.
We favour zero tariffs because buyers bear real costs and firms need access to inputs. We do not need to promise a growth boom to make that case.
Sources
- World Development Indicators (World Bank) ↗
- Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs (2019 working paper) ↗
The World Bank: World Development Indicators (World Bank). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Source terms ↗ · CC BY 4.0 ↗
International Monetary Fund: Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs (2019 working paper). Source terms ↗
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What this does not show: Growth runs to 2025. Most of the 143 comparisons use three later years; three use two. Other policies, crises and changes in imports can affect both series. No clear link is not proof of no effect.
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The World Bank: World Development Indicators (World Bank). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Source terms ↗ · CC BY 4.0 ↗
International Monetary Fund: Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs (2019 working paper). Source terms ↗