Report · Published

A basic income. More room to live.

We support universal basic income. The next job is to build it well, fund the tests and show the whole bill.

What we found

The design changes the bill.

PBO modelled two income-tested plans for 2025. The payment costs were about $107 billion and $53 billion. Neither is a price for universal basic income. [1]

The model points to less poverty.

The same PBO model cut the poverty rate by 34.4% or 40.1%. These are modelled drops from the starting rate, not percentage-point drops. They include the tax changes but leave out work changes. [1]

Work results differ.

A German trial found no clear change in the share with jobs. A large US trial found less paid work. The people and rules differed. [2][3]

A bill is not a payment.

S-206 seeks a national plan for a basic income guarantee. The Senate's record lists it in committee. It has not created an income benefit. [4][5]

Our case for change

A person should have room to learn, care, start a firm or leave a bad job. We want a steady cash floor for everyone. We support universal basic income and the pilots that help build it. Good results matter. So do hard results. Both help us get it right.

Give people a secure start.

We support universal basic income: regular cash paid to people without a work or income test. People with high incomes can pay more tax. A safe floor should be a right, not a reward for pleasing an office.

This is our goal. We also back income-tested pilots that help us learn. We will name the difference. A plan that cuts the payment as income rises is not the same as a payment to everyone.

Learn from the good and the hard results.

Germany tested monthly cash for three years. Its main trial had 107 recipients and 1,580 people in a comparison group. It found better mental health. It did not find a clear change in the share with jobs. The group was narrow: adults aged 21 to 40 who lived alone.

A US trial gave 1,000 people US$1,000 a month for three years. Another 2,000 got US$50 a month. Paid work fell by about one to two hours a week. That result belongs on this page too. No small trial can tell us the full effect of national taxes, rents or prices.

[2][6][3]

Show who pays and who gains.

In 2025, PBO modelled two income-tested plans. One counted adults, their partners and young children as a family. The other also counted adult relatives in the home. The wider test paid out much less.

The model paid for the base cost by cutting named benefits and tax credits. It also cut the income amount people can earn before tax applies. That is a funding choice, not free money. We have not adopted those cuts. We want a separate price for UBI, with each tax change and effect on people shown.

[1]

Back the next steps in Canada.

Canada has steps to build on. Quebec has a basic income program for people with severe, long-term health limits. PEI reports a targeted pilot. These are not universal plans. Ontario ended its earlier pilot before the planned three years were up.

We back pilots across the country and a funded path to UBI. Keep health care and extra support for disability. Build more homes too. Set a budget, protect people in the trial and publish what happens. A test should move the work forward, not delay the goal forever.

[7][8][9]

The strongest challenge to our case

Cash alone cannot fix a lack of homes, care or services. BC's expert panel favoured other reforms over basic income. Taxes and lost benefits can also leave some people worse off. We still support UBI. We want a design that faces these costs and protects people with extra needs.

[10][1]

What we want changed

  1. Build the national plan.

    Set out a path to universal basic income. Price the payment, the tax plan and the effect on each group.

  2. Back pilots and keep the promise.

    Fund tests across Canada. State the payment dates and budget. Keep the agreed support in place for the full trial.

  3. Keep the support people need.

    Protect health care and help for extra needs. Make access simple. Publish gains, harms and costs.

Who can act

Parliament; federal, provincial and territorial finance and social support offices; Indigenous governments.

What this could cost the public

We have not priced our final UBI design. PBO's income-tested examples are not that price. Each pilot needs a public budget. A national plan needs its own payment, tax and service costs, with gains and losses shown.

Who counts as family changes the bill.

Two income-tested plans, modelled for 2025. These are not universal payments to all.

Billions of Canadian dollars · Calendar year 2025; PBO model published February 19, 2025

Payment costs before tax changes or work effects. Includes extra disability payments. This does not price UBI.

Check the sources: A Distributional Analysis of a National Guaranteed Basic Income – Update

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Explore the data behind the case

Each chart has its own dates, sources and limits. Open it to see the full data and download the figures.

Check the sources

Source title in English

  1. A Distributional Analysis of a National Guaranteed Basic Income – Update ↗
  2. Basic income and labor supply: Theory and evidence from an RCT in Germany ↗
  3. The Employment Effects of a Guaranteed Income: Experimental Evidence from Two U.S. States ↗
  4. S-206, 45th Parliament, 1st session — LEGISinfo ↗
  5. Bill S-206, first reading, May 28, 2025 ↗
  6. Cash Transfers, Mental Health, and Agency: Evidence from an RCT in Germany ↗
  7. Basic Income Program — Gouvernement du Québec ↗
  8. Poverty Elimination Strategy Act Annual Report 2024–25 ↗
  9. Question Period Note: Guaranteed Basic Income ↗
  10. Basic income report — Province of British Columbia ↗

WAKE UP CANADA

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Help more people see the facts and the plan.

A basic income. More room to live.

We support universal basic income. The next job is to build it well, fund the tests and show the whole bill.

Keep the source, date and notes with the image.

Checked:

What this does not show: Trials test specific groups for a set time. They do not settle the cost or effects of a lasting plan for all of Canada. The cost chart is for income-tested plans, not UBI.

wakeupcanada.ca/en/investigations/a-basic-income-more-room-to-live/
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