A large gap between housing paths
CMHC models two paths. Current trends give 231,000 home starts a year. It puts the need at 417,000 to 469,000 to bring costs back to 2019 levels by 2036, compared with incomes. [1]
Report · Published
Let homes grow where life happens
Open the door to useful homes, short trips and more choice. Keep the housing evidence honest.
What we found
Our case for change
A good job should not come with a locked gate to the place where it is. We want homes near work, shops and safe ways to get around. End rules that block useful homes. Keep rules that guard people from real harm.
The housing gap is still large
CMHC’s fall 2026 model puts Canada’s need at 417,000 to 469,000 housing starts a year. The aim is to regain 2019 levels of housing affordability by 2036. Its forecast under current trends is 231,000 starts a year. These are model results, not homes already built. They include homes built by private firms. They are not a bill for taxpayers.
[1]A slow yes can still block a home
A 2023 CMHC study found that long approval times had the strongest link to poor housing affordability among the rule measures it tested. Its measure of density limits had the weakest link. This does not make every density rule sound. It does mean we must fix the whole path from a plan to a home, and test which changes work.
[2]The famous GDP claim is disputed
A well-known US study put a large cost on housing limits near good jobs. But a 2026 journal comment by Brian Greaney found flaws in its code and model. Its revised model gave a much smaller gain. We will not use the old estimate as a settled fact. It was a model of US cities, not a measure of lost Canadian GDP.
[3][5]Build places where people can thrive
Our goal is a better daily life. Let small homes, flats and shops share more streets. Give builders a clear set of rules and a firm time for a reply. Plan water, schools and safe travel as homes grow. Judge success by rents, prices, travel time and homes people can use, not just plans stamped yes.
The strongest challenge to our case
New homes need pipes, power and safe streets. Zoning changes alone cannot supply those things. Keep real safety checks and show the cost of the works each plan needs.
What we want changed
Open the door
End remaining blanket bans on small multi-home buildings and nearby shops.
Run a real clock
Publish decision times and reasons for delays, from the first filing to move-in.
Plan whole places
Tie housing and street plans together. Count the full public cost.
Who can act
Provinces and territories set housing laws. Local councils set plans and run permits. They must plan streets and services together.
What this could cost the public
No new grant or spending total is proposed. Rule changes and reporting still have admin costs; these have not been costed nationally. Any new public works, grants or guarantees need a separate costed proposal.
Two paths for Canada’s homes
CMHC’s model compares its current forecast with the pace needed to regain 2019 housing affordability by 2036. These are yearly housing starts, not homes already built.
Housing starts per year · September 2026 model; target year 2036
A model range, not a count of actual homes or a promise. It covers market housing and does not solve every low-income need. It is not a plan to fund every home with public money.
Check the sources: CMHC: Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report
Explore the data behind the case
Each chart has its own dates, sources and limits. Open it to see the full data and download the figures.
Homes and places
Cities make a large share of our output
Jobs and firms tend to group in cities. Homes, shops and good travel links should help people reach them.
2022 · Canadian dollars, billions
See the chart and the case ↗Growth and wealth
Is growth reaching each of us?
Canada's economy is much bigger than in 1981. Gains per person have been slow in the past decade. Look past the total.
2026 · Quarter 2 · Start of 2015 = 100
See the chart and the case ↗Check the sources
Source title in English
- CMHC: Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report ↗
- CMHC: Approval Delays Linked with Lower Housing Affordability ↗
- Hsieh and Moretti: Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation ↗
- Hsieh and Moretti: published paper, author-hosted PDF ↗
- Greaney: Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation: Comment ↗
Related work from Build Canada
We credit their work and draw our own conclusions. A link is not an endorsement from them.
WAKE UP CANADA
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Open the door to useful homes, short trips and more choice. Keep the housing evidence honest.
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What this does not show: The CMHC numbers are a forecast range, not a promised saving. No verified Canadian GDP gain is claimed.
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