Report · Published

Stop taxing our own shoppers.

A tariff is a tax on imports. Buyers here bear costs. Let safe goods in, cut the tax and give people more choice.

What we found

Buyers felt the tax.

A Bank of Canada study tracked seven large sellers in 2025. Prices on taxed US goods rose about 6% more than other goods in the study. That was about a quarter of the tariff rate. Those relative prices fell back after most taxes ended. [2]

Show the budget cost.

Import duties brought in $6.3 billion in 2024-25, about 1.2% of federal revenue. The spring 2026 forecast for 2025-26 was $10.1 billion. Ending duties means giving up that revenue. It is not free money. [4][6]

Cheaper parts can help firms.

In an India study, a ten-point cut in tariffs on parts and other inputs raised firm output from the same resources by about 4.8%. The same cut on finished goods raised it by about 0.32%. [10]

Count gains and job losses.

In Canada's 1989 free trade deal, industries with the deepest Canadian tariff cuts lost about 12% of their jobs. Their output per worker rose about 15%. A separate 14% gain at plants followed deep US tariff cuts. [11]

Keep weak tests in their place.

We compared 2022 tariffs with later growth in 143 economies. The simple link was close to zero. We also checked growth around 240 large falls in average tariff rates. These checks cannot tell us what tariffs caused. [12]

Our case for change

We want zero tariffs for every country, with no conditions. A tax on parts makes it harder to build here. A tax on safe goods puts a wall between buyers and choice. Keep strong safety rules. End the tax wall.

A border tax reaches home.

An importer pays the tariff at the border. A shop may raise its price, earn less on each sale, or share the cost with its supplier. The split can change. A tariff does not come with a rule that makes a foreign seller pay it.

US studies of the 2018 tariffs found that buyers paid the full tax in import prices. That is a border result, not proof that every shop passed it all on. Canada's 2025 study found a smaller share at the till. Both show why shoppers have a stake in this tax.

[3][2]

The tax take is not the whole cost.

Ottawa took in $6.3 billion in import duties in 2024-25. That is a real budget sum. Divide it by the occupied homes counted in 2021 and it equals about $420 per home. But that is just a scale check. It does not show what a family paid or would save.

The same tax can cost buyers money and raise state revenue. Do not count that money twice. Trades that never happen and costly parts add other costs. We have not priced the full bill for Canada's current barriers.

[4][9][3]

Growth needs stronger proof.

Our simple test across 143 economies found a link close to zero between 2022 tariffs and later growth. Most follow-up periods last three years; three last two. Countries differ in too many ways for this to show what tariffs caused. We cannot call a faint link proof of no effect.

Researchers studied 151 countries from 1963 to 2014. A tariff rise of about 3.6 points was linked to output about 0.4% lower five years later. They also found lower output per worker. That study uses a model. It is evidence of harm, not a forecast of the gain from zero tariffs in Canada today.

[12][7]

Give builders cheaper inputs.

Inputs are the parts and goods a firm uses to make other goods. The India study found a much larger gain from cuts on inputs than on finished goods. A ten-point input tariff cut raised firm output from the same resources by about 4.8%. The finished-goods result was about 0.32%.

That is a reason to look at the whole chain. A wall that helps one steel firm may raise costs for firms that build with steel. Count both sides. Make Canada a good place to build by giving firms access to safe goods on fair, open terms.

[10]

Go to zero for our own sake.

We do not need a promise from Washington to want cheaper parts and more choice here. Canada ended most broad counter-tariffs in September 2025, but kept measures on steel, aluminum and cars. That was not a full move to zero. It cannot tell us how a full offer would work.

Our ask is clear: zero tariffs for every country, including China. End quotas that shield sellers from safe rivals. Keep safety, data, recall and forced-labour rules. Apply those rules to all goods on the same terms. Let buyers choose.

[5][8]

Help workers through change.

Trade changes can hurt. The Canadian industries with the deepest tariff cuts in the 1989 deal lost about 12% of their jobs. Their output per worker rose about 15%. Both findings matter. A stronger firm is not a job plan for a worker who lost work.

Publish the lost duty revenue and the cost of real help for workers and towns. State how both will be paid for. Ending a bad tax needs an honest plan, not a promise that no one will lose.

[11][4]

The strongest challenge to our case

A model of Canada's 1879 National Policy found a small gain in living standards. The reported whole-economy tests put it at about 0.03% to 0.20% of GDP. That is evidence we must face, not hide.

That study measures a small gain in living standards, not a growth rate. Its tests for the whole economy stay positive. A separate count of losses leaves out trade-price and tax-revenue gains. We must not call that a reversal of the same result. A model of 1879 also cannot settle Canada's best policy today.

[1]

What we want changed

  1. Take every tariff to zero.

    End all customs duties. Keep rules that guard people. End quotas, permits and country bans used to shield sellers from lawful trade. Keep permits that guard people or enforce sanctions.

  2. Keep the rules that guard people.

    Safety, data, recall and forced-labour rules stay — applied the same way to every country.

  3. Fund the change honestly.

    Publish the lost duty revenue and the cost of worker help. Pay for both in the open.

Who can act

Parliament can change the tariff law. Cabinet can change many duties under powers that law gives it. A plan to end every duty must use the right legal steps.

What this could cost the public

The 2024-25 duty take was $6.3 billion, about 1.2% of federal revenue. The spring 2026 forecast for 2025-26 was $10.1 billion. Repeal would remove revenue. We have not priced the full gains to buyers or the cost of worker help.

The tariff tax take

Customs import duties collected by the federal government: audited 2024-25 and forecast 2025-26.

$ billions (fiscal year) · 2024-25 audited; 2025-26 forecast

The 2025-26 bar is a forecast from spring 2026, not a final count. Revenue is not a household bill or a measure of lost output.

Check the sources: Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada 2024-25 · Spring Economic Update 2026

Download the data (CSV) ↓

Explore the data behind the case

Each chart has its own dates, sources and limits. Open it to see the full data and download the figures.

The World Bank: World Development Indicators: tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%), 2026-10-08. Used under CC BY 4.0. We chose data, drew charts and changed units where noted. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Source terms ↗ · CC BY 4.0 ↗

Check the sources

Source title in English

  1. The Welfare Effects of Protection: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Canada's National Policy ↗
  2. How Canada's counter-tariffs impacted consumer prices ↗
  3. The Return to Protectionism ↗
  4. Annual Financial Report of the Government of Canada 2024-25 ↗
  5. Complete list of US products subject to counter-tariffs ↗
  6. Spring Economic Update 2026 ↗
  7. Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs (2019 working paper) ↗
  8. Regulations Amending the Import Control List (SOR/2026-32) ↗
  9. Population and dwelling counts, 2021 Census (table 98-10-0002-01) ↗
  10. Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity: The Case of India ↗
  11. The Long and Short of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement ↗
  12. World Development Indicators: Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%) ↗

WAKE UP CANADA

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Help more people see the facts and the plan.

Stop taxing our own shoppers.

A tariff is a tax on imports. Buyers here bear costs. Let safe goods in, cut the tax and give people more choice.

Keep the source, date and notes with the image.

Checked:

What this does not show: GDP is what a country produces. Our own country comparisons do not show what tariffs caused. The case rests on measured price effects and carefully scoped firm studies. We do not promise a GDP gain or a saving for each family.

wakeupcanada.ca/en/investigations/tariffs-are-taxes/
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